"The UN Climate Talks Struggle: A Tale of Disappointment and Inaction"
Climate Finance: The Negotiating Placeholder "X"
The negotiating placeholder "X" for climate finance serves as a stark testament to the ineptitude of rich and emerging economies. Instead of setting a clear global goal of at least $1tn in new funds for developing countries, the text contains only this ambiguous symbol. Oscar Soria from the Common Initiative thinktank emphasizes the danger of this ambiguity, stating that inaction risks turning "X" into a symbol of extinction for the world's most vulnerable. Without firm and ambitious commitments, developing nations are left unarmed in their fight against climate chaos.Developing countries demand at least $1tn a year in climate finance, with a large proportion coming directly from the rich in the form of grants. However, the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) text presents only two extreme positions with little compromise, leaving the path to a fair and adequate financial settlement unclear.
Many civil society groups lay the blame on developed countries. Joseph Sikulu from 350.org argues that rich nations must stop dithering and start delivering. What is needed is a clear and substantial commitment of funds, not just empty promises. Without this, the fight against climate change will continue to be a uphill battle for developing countries.
Mitigation: The Absence of a Crucial Commitment
The long-awaited draft texts covered all the main aspects of a possible deal at Cop29, but the absence of the "transition away from fossil fuels" in the mitigation text is unacceptable to many developed and developing countries. Last year at Cop28 in Dubai, a significant commitment was made to this effect. However, Saudi Arabia has since attempted to undermine this commitment, alleging it was an "option" rather than a goal.This fight over the agenda has created further divisions and made it difficult to reach a consensus. Developing countries are keen to build on the hard-won progress made last year, while some countries, like Saudi Arabia, seem to be working against a robust deal.
The EU climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, has also expressed his dissatisfaction, stating that the draft text is "clearly unacceptable as it stands." This highlights the complex and challenging nature of the negotiations and the need for a more collaborative and decisive approach.
The Role of Developing and Petro-States
Developed countries are likely to offer a much lower amount in direct financial assistance, probably around $200bn to $300bn. The remainder of the $1tn is expected to come from new forms of funding, such as fossil fuel taxes and private sector investment.However, countries like China, with a robust economy and large greenhouse gas emissions, and petro-states like Saudi, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, are also being asked to contribute to the financial assistance for poorer countries. Despite being classified as developing under the Paris agreement, these countries have no obligation to contribute, but their participation is seen as crucial for a comprehensive and effective solution.
The final days of the two-week talks are fraught with challenges as ministers and high-ranking officials engage in intense shuttle diplomacy. The question remains whether Azerbaijan can exert enough control over the negotiations and bring the various positions closer together. Only time will tell if a breakthrough can be achieved before the Cop29 summit ends on Friday night.